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Competences
> Forecasts
> Forecasts International
> European Regions
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International Forecasts |
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European Regional Forecasts |
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As from fall 2009, BAKBASEL offers its clients a new European Regional Forecast service. This service includes quarterly forecasts up to 2020 for all 27 EU countries plus Switzerland and Norway. The regional desaggregation goes as far as the NUTS3 level.
The following indicators are in the forecast database:
- real GDP and gross value added by 14 sectors
- employment by 14 sectors
- population and working age population
- workforce, unemployment level and unemployment rate
- real disposable household income, consumer spending and retail sales
The forecasts are elaborated using a complex econometric model. In the short run GDP is modelled as the sum of gross value added of the 14 sectors which is dominated by demand side effects, thus stressing the individual industry structure of each region. In the long run GDP is determined by a supply side model, taking various location factors into account. Such a hybrid model for GDP best assures to count for both current structure and potential development of a region. All other variables (labour market, population and consumer spending) are derived from output data. Of course, the model and the data/forecasts derived from it are completely consistent (across time, across regions, across indicators).
They are consistent with other forecast products offered by BAKBASEL. |
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Factsheet «European Regional Forecasts»
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Contact:
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Marc Bros de Puechredon
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+41 61 279 97 25
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marc.puechredon@bakbasel.com
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